Global economic growth forecast by International Monetary Fund
Very interesting 2023 forecast by International Monetary Fund regarding global growth. Good news is that most countries will avoid a recession this year.
Our summary below:
- Global growth is projected to 2.9% in 2023 and further rise to 3.1% in 2024 (forecast for 2023 is +0.2% than predicted in Oct 2022).
- Key elements for better forecast are due to China reopening as it scraped zero-Covid policy and gas prices fall due to warm winter.
- Global inflation is expected to fall from 8.8% in 2022 to 6.6% in 2023 and further 4.3% in 2024. Inflation still will be above pre-covid (2017–19) levels of 3.5%.
- UK is expected to be the only leading economy to shrink in 2023, with GDP forecast of -0.6% and further rise to 0.9% in 2024.
Source: International Monetary Fund
Blackstone about 4Q and their real estate portlofio
Very interesting insights from Blackstone on their 4Q earnings and their real estate portlofio (2:38+).
Currently logistics counts for 40% of their global portfolio. Why?
- 1-3% vacancy rates globally,
- 10-20% rent increase,
- demant and supply are not matching.
Source: CNBC
Newport Logistics Fund finances the construction of a distribution centre near Amsterdam
Newport Logistics Fund, a Luxembourg fund investing in warehouse real estate, will finance the development of a distribution centre at the Stichtsekant business park in Almere near Amsterdam. Construction of the 23,400 sqm development is scheduled for completion in early 2024.
Newport Logistics Fund, a fund investing in warehouse real estate, will finance the development of a distribution centre at the Stichtsekant business park in Almere near Amsterdam. Construction of the 23,400 sqm development is scheduled for completion in early 2024.
The distribution centre will be located directly adjacent to the A27 motorway, just 30 km from Amsterdam and Utrecht. Schiphol airport and the port of Amsterdam are reachable in approximately 30 minutes. Around twelve million people live within an hour's drive of the business park.
"We are extremely excited that our Fund's next project is located in the best area in the Netherlands, close to Amsterdam. The second project in our portfolio provides investors with diversification in terms of assets and geographical location," - said Szymon Ostrowski Managing Director of Newport Logistics Fund.
The Almere Distribution Centre will consist of 19,600 sqm of warehouse space, more than 2,100 sqm of office space and a mezzanine floor occupying nearly 1,600 sqm. The facility will have 22 loading docks and five overhead doors. There will also be 251 parking spaces. The development will be suitable for one larger tenant or for several smaller ones within segments of at least 3,700 sqm.
Newport is betting on green. The new distribution centre will meet strict sustainable building requirements and will be certified in accordance with the BREEAM standard of Very Good. The building will not use natural gas and the roof will be entirely covered with PV panels.
International renown. Business Park Stichtsenkant has a strong business presence - leading companies from various sectors chose it as a base for logistics operations, including Volvo, Lidl, or PostNbout thirty minutes away by car is the port of Flevokust, with the container terminal CTU Flevokust. It offers the possibility of transporting goods by water, for example to the port of Rotterdam.
Projects on a variety of latitudes. The Almere distribution centre is another European realisation financed by Newport Logistics Fund. In the second half of 2022, construction began on an industrial facility in Poland, near Łódź, with a target area of 33,000 sqm. In the first of the halls, DPD will occupy 6,300 sqm, and the cross-dock building will house one of the company's most modern sorters in the country.
Investors want warehouses!
A very interesting article summarizing trends in this market as well as the position of Poland.
Below is our summary:
- Logistics real estate, warehouses as well as urban logistics facilities are the most popular among investors (EUR 500 billion + AUM).
- 90% of respondents indicate that an element of their investment strategy is based on energy and ecological efficiency (BREEAM or LEED certification).
- Poland is a very artactive market due to the fact that the costs of rent, energy and labor are the lowest in Europe (34% lower than in Czech Republic and 62% lower than in Germany).
- 25%, this is the average increase in rents in 2022 in Poland. From EUR 3.40 to EUR 5.50/sqm/month for big-box schemes and from EUR 5.00 to EUR 6.50/sqm/month for City Logistics/SBU projects.
Source: log24.pl
2022 CEE-6 Highlights in the Real Estate
We recommend reading interesting report by Colliers about the 2022 CEE-6 Highlights in the Real Estate. Our summary with focus on industrial sector below:
- 2022 was another good year on the industrial market in terms of demand levels.
- Very low vacancy rate in most CEE counties at <5% (Czech >1%, Poland 3%).
- Rents on industrial markets of all CEE countries have increased, but remain competitive with Western European markets (in Poland base rents went up 20-40% and effective rents 20-50%).
- The war in Ukraine has affected the economic situation of all countries.
- ESG moves from “nice to have” to market standard in all RE market segments as well as tenant sectors.
Source: Colliers
Industrial and logistics market - 6 out of 10 companies plan to increase turnover and new recruitments
According to CBRE in the "Confidence Index 2022" report, 6 out of 10 companies from the industrial and logistics sector plan to increase turnover and new recruitments.
Below is our summary:
- 27 million sq m - industrial and logistics space in Poland after Q3 (+19% y/y).
- 58% of companies in the sector expect an increase in turnover and plan to hire new employees.
- 4 million sqm is under construction, so in 2023 we will enter with over 30 million sqm (+8% than the year before).
Source: TerenyInwestycyjne.info
We are an associate member of the Polish Private Equity & Venture Capital Association - PSIK
Newport Logistics Fund has been admitted to Polskie Stowarzyszenie Inwestorów Kapitałowych (PSIK), the Polish Private Equity & Venture Capital Association as an associate member. PSIK’s mission is to promote and develop the private equity and venture capital industry in Poland. It comprises more than 130 companies operating in private equity management, venture capital industry, law and consulting companies as well as banks.
Top 10 Trends for 2023
Poland Weekly asked Szymon J. Ostrowski to give his Top 10 Trends for 2023.
"Nearshoring (...) become a reality. As a result of disruptions in supply chains, companies are increasing their production, warehousing and service location capabilities in Europe. This is a great opportunity for Poland, as well as for the warehouse and industrial real estate market".
Source: Poland Weekly
